Crossing Thin Ice

Are You Ready for the Next Unknown Known? Relying on rules of thumb and past trends is a fast track to getting blindsided. From climate feedback loops to high-velocity risks, here is why traditional modeling fails in an unpredictable world—and how first-principles thinking can keep you ahead.

Successful ERM implementations develop over time through iterative refinement, building organizational buy-in before layering on complex modeling structures. Here is Part 2 of "Implementing ERM".  
In part 1, we covered the foundational core: balancing risk exploitation with downside protection, navigating the five phases of the risk control cycle, and applying four primary measurement methodologies to quantify exposure.
Now, in Part 2, we’re moving from operations to Strategy. We will be diving into setting actionable risk appetites and tolerances, communicating effectively with senior leadership, and positioning the CRO as a strategic business partner rather than 'Doctor No'.

Regular ERM is one of the six Time Zones of ERM.  This is part 1 of our discussion of regular ERM.  We include discussion of Exploiting Risk by focusing on both upside and downside of risk.  The three Levels of ERM.  The Risk Control Cycle. Risk Prioritization.  Emerging Risk and the role of human foresight.  And finish up with discussion of four Risk Measurement techniques.  Part 2 will land next month.  

History has a way of creeping back when we assume the battle is already won. In this our 85th episode, we confront an immediate, present-day vulnerability to TB that most professionals believe belongs safely in the textbooks of the past.
Current risk frameworks are structurally blind to slow-moving, invisible threats that erode infrastructure from the inside out. TB has been quietly adapting beneath the surface of modern economic and social systems while the world looks the other way.
Tune in to find out why this emerging risk requires a radical, immediate shift in perspective.

I used to think a great ERM program just meant strict discipline. Now I know the best CROs have an ERM playbook with multiple sets of plays and sometimes they are calling audibles, changing the ERM play at the last moment.  Most companies run their business using a single ERM playbook—until a crisis hits. Today we address 6 distinct "time zones" and explain how you actually need different playbooks for each. 

Outliers are events we know are possible—we have the data, the science, or the historical precedent—but we actively ignore them because they haven't happened recently. They grow in the dark because a stable economy breeds complacency, leading institutions to price assets as if these threats don't exist. In today's podcast, Max explains how we must shine a light into the dark corners of the market—looking for risk interactions, tightening loan covenants, and questioning historical models before the next Outlier forces the light on for all of us.

If you treat a "wicked problem" like a standard, predictable risk, failure is almost guaranteed. Listen up and we will explain, what is a Wicked Problem and how it is very different from most of the risks on your risk register.  
In this episode of Crossing Thin Ice, we break down why traditional enterprise risk management frameworks are completely failing in the face of modern, systemic crises—from climate change shifts to sudden technological disruptions like AI herding. Discover the hidden dangers of relying too heavily on rigid corporate models, why forcing economic efficiency might actually make these risks worse and your organization more fragile.  
These problems don't actually have any right or wrong solutions. Welcome to the squishy world of unique, wicked problems.  

The risk of hyperinflation should not be ignored despite our lack of recent experience with it in the U.S. Hyperinflation is not just theoretical, our discussion looks at the core mechanics of inflation - most notably that it is based on trust. Max shares a comprehensive look at the unique factors cushioning the U.S., such as reserve currency status, while also addressing significant growing risks, including consistent deficits and a debt-to-GDP ratio now exceeding 100%. Hear about the complex interactions of economic policy, shadow banking, and the leading indicators that proactive risk managers must monitor to prepare for potential high-inflation scenarios.
Blog post of this story:  
https://crossingthinice.substack.com/p/hyperinflation
 

Survival in chaos doesn't come from optimization. It comes from diversification, buffers, and the speed to decide what to do next.
Pragmatists have a completely different way of doing risk management that is designed for these VUCA times. By focusing on building resilience to survive volatility.  Most managers are doing this wrong by chasing efficiency in a uncertain world. In this episode, we break down the "Pragmatist Manifesto" and its six core principles.

Stability breeds instability. If your model assumes calm continuity, you might be blind to the pile of sand that's about to avalanche. 
Many actuaries and financial modelers rely on recent data and linear trending of assumptions, missing the amplifying loops that can accelerate change to topple entire systems. We discuss what to look for instead.