Crossing Thin Ice

Six Time Zones of Risk Management

I used to think a great ERM program just meant strict discipline. Now I know the best CROs have an ERM playbook with multiple sets of plays and sometimes they are calling audibles, changing the ERM play at the last moment.  Most companies run their business using a single ERM playbook—until a crisis hits. Today we address 6 distinct "time zones" and explain how you actually need different playbooks for each. 

Anticipating Outlier Scenarios

Outliers are events we know are possible—we have the data, the science, or the historical precedent—but we actively ignore them because they haven't happened recently. They grow in the dark because a stable economy breeds complacency, leading institutions to price assets as if these threats don't exist. In today's podcast, Max explains how we must shine a light into the dark corners of the market—looking for risk interactions, tightening loan covenants, and questioning historical models before the next Outlier forces the light on for all of us.

Wicked Problems Vex Risk Managers

If you treat a "wicked problem" like a standard, predictable risk, failure is almost guaranteed. Listen up and we will explain, what is a Wicked Problem and how it is very different from most of the risks on your risk register.  
In this episode of Crossing Thin Ice, we break down why traditional enterprise risk management frameworks are completely failing in the face of modern, systemic crises—from climate change shifts to sudden technological disruptions like AI herding. Discover the hidden dangers of relying too heavily on rigid corporate models, why forcing economic efficiency might actually make these risks worse and your organization more fragile.  
These problems don't actually have any right or wrong solutions. Welcome to the squishy world of unique, wicked problems.  

Hyperinflation

The risk of hyperinflation should not be ignored despite our lack of recent experience with it in the U.S. Hyperinflation is not just theoretical, our discussion looks at the core mechanics of inflation - most notably that it is based on trust. Max shares a comprehensive look at the unique factors cushioning the U.S., such as reserve currency status, while also addressing significant growing risks, including consistent deficits and a debt-to-GDP ratio now exceeding 100%. Hear about the complex interactions of economic policy, shadow banking, and the leading indicators that proactive risk managers must monitor to prepare for potential high-inflation scenarios.
Blog post of this story:  
https://crossingthinice.substack.com/p/hyperinflation
 

Pragmatist Manifesto

Survival in chaos doesn't come from optimization. It comes from diversification, buffers, and the speed to decide what to do next.
Pragmatists have a completely different way of doing risk management that is designed for these VUCA times. By focusing on building resilience to survive volatility.  Most managers are doing this wrong by chasing efficiency in a uncertain world. In this episode, we break down the "Pragmatist Manifesto" and its six core principles.

Feedback Loops and Tipping Points

Stability breeds instability. If your model assumes calm continuity, you might be blind to the pile of sand that's about to avalanche. 
Many actuaries and financial modelers rely on recent data and linear trending of assumptions, missing the amplifying loops that can accelerate change to topple entire systems. We discuss what to look for instead. 

VUCA Now, Regime Change Next?

We are making decisions with incomplete and conflicting information every day.  Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity (VUCA) make it harder and harder to get those decisions right. Maybe we need to change our objective, not to find the best decision, but the one with the least chance of disastrous consequences.  Keep your eyes out for the Regime change that has started.  We provide four examples of what may be next.  

The Fog of Ambiguity

How do you make a confident decision when the information itself is unclear? Ambiguity is the core challenge of modern leadership.
But the pursuit of perfect data to drive good decisions leads right into "analysis paralysis".  We need to be enhancing our capability to use strategies like satisficing—making the best possible decision within time constraints—and using narrative scenarios to communicate complex risks to non-experts. For professionals and graduates navigating an uncertain future, the key takeaway is that human judgment, creativity, and ethical reasoning are the skills AI cannot replicate and are most valuable in an ambiguous world.  

Complexity - TheTwist in VUCA

A jet engine is complicated. Your company is complex. The strategies for managing the risks of each are fundamentally—and dangerously—different.
We call Complexity the "twist" in VUCA because it fundamentally changes the nature of the problems we face. While Volatility, Uncertainty, and Ambiguity describe challenging conditions, Complexity introduces a system where the parts are interdependent and adapt. This means you cannot solve a complex problem by simply breaking it into smaller, complicated parts and fixing them.
Complexity is the twist: it's the element that makes VUCA environments truly unmanageable with old playbooks. You cannot apply a "complicated" solution to a "complex" problem and get the result that you want. 

The New Age of Strategic Uncertainty

Uncertainty is rising and AI is one of the most significant drivers.  
Not because there is something wrong with AI, but because it is so different and so powerful.  We just do not know what changes are right around the corner.  We do believe that the future belongs to the companies who learn to best combine human empathy, creativity and the ability to navigate uncertainty with AI's speed of processing and power of connection making between existing ideas and new human insights.