Crossing Thin Ice

Climate Migration

No one is arguing anymore that the planet is not getting hotter, but what are the limits to temperature rise for humans survival? The ramifications for those who live in poverty in tropical zones is that they will need to move because of the heat. The alternatives are unacceptable. The world needs a plan to deal with massive climate migration. By Max Rudolph.

Risk and Capital

Stakeholder perception about the appropriate level of risk and the corresponding capital level varies. Some insurers focus on optimizing income and disbursements, while others find their goals aligned by holding redundant capital. Here we discuss several broad choices for the level of capital and the pros and cons of each based upon common business objectives. By Dave Ingram.

Interactions between risks: Implications for building scenarios

Historically, scenarios have focused on one assumption at a time but that is not realistic in today’s quickly evolving world. Risk interactions are very important considerations and impact scenario assumptions dynamically. Three narrative scenarios that interact between financial and non-financial risks are discussed. By Max Rudolph.

Why Insurers Do ERM

Enterprise Risk Management is practiced in different ways by insurers. Some focus on the basics while others consider ERM as a strategic strength. In a recent survey, ARM asked what is most important to them about ERM.

After COVID

Prior to 2019, Pandemic was the most studied emerging risk. And now that one has happened, it is time to study our reactions to COVID. In this podcast, we look at the reactions that people typically have to near death experiences and find that they are similar to the reactions that companies are having to COVID. Several very different reactions have been observed, but only one has a lasting favorable impact on the risk management program. By Dave Ingram 

Six Futures for ERM

Scenario based planning is good for forming company strategy and it can also be good for planning risk management. There are a number of ways that the future might play out for risk management and the likelihood of each of the six possibilities mentioned here has probably changed significantly because of our experiences over the past two years. Which future will you be prepared for and which would have been a total surprise if you hadn’t listened to this podcast? By Dave Ingram

Super Volcano

A volcano erupts somewhere, on average, every week. Eruptions large enough to impact the global environment happen much less frequently, but they have happened. The “Year without a Summer” in 1815 affected crops and immigration, and similar events will happen again. These Super Volcanoes tend to have numerous knock-on effects. By Max Rudolph

Concentration

Concentration is added by doubling down on things you do well. This two-part story considers strategic drivers that add to concentration and tactical methods to mitigate these risks. By Dave Ingram and Max Rudolph.

Cascadia Earthquake

When a catastrophic event hasn’t happened since 1700 there is not much historical data to aid those who live there or insure residents. Here are some of the basic concerns. By Max Rudolph

Telling Your ERM Story to Rating Agency

There is a story about ERM that most insurers can tell. A story with four chapters: ERM Framework, Individual Risks, Aggregate Risk & Capital and the ERM Journey. Usually there isn’t enough time to tell the the ratings analyst all four chapters, so you have to choose. By Dave Ingram