Crossing Thin Ice

Spillover Revisited #46

In this episode of Crossing Thin Ice, we revisit the crucial topic of zoonotic spillover diseases and their evolving impact. From the ongoing challenges posed by COVID-19 to the growing concern about bird flu spreading through mammals, including dairy herds, the discussion highlights what we’ve learned—and what we still need to monitor. Special focus is given to wastewater surveillance as a tool for early virus detection and the role actuaries can play in pandemic preparedness. Tune in to explore these pressing issues and learn how demographic shifts, evolving viruses, and actuarial foresight can help us better prepare for future health crises.

Large Language Models in Risk Management

Discover how LLMs are transforming the way risk professionals tackle complex problems, enhancing decision-making much like spreadsheets revolutionized calculations. Listen as we dive into the practical applications of LLMs for Chief Risk Officers, from environmental monitoring to scenario generation, breaking down how these tools can help manage uncertainty, identify weak spots, and even reveal what’s missing in risk assessments. By Dave Ingram

Model Assumptions under Increasing Uncertainty

There are massive challenges for setting modeling assumptions in an era of increasing uncertainty. With insights into the impact of climate change, economic volatility, and emerging risks on actuarial models, this podcast explores the concept of resilience in modeling by adapting assumptions to manage volatility from unexpected events. Max Rudolph provides practical advice on addressing assumption uncertainty, integrating risk margins, and refining risk management strategies across assets and liabilities.

The Power of Risk Management Decision-Making

A risk-focused mindset ensures better informed, resilient decisions. This mindset leads to a Risk Management Decision-Making process that we describe in this podcast and explain how it differs from other decision-making approaches such as heuristics, satisficing, and cost-benefit analysis.  We feature the five essential components—risk awareness, diversification, risk appetite and tolerance, risk-reward management, and competitive advantage—and discuss how these elements transform decision making.

Regime Change - Before & After

Once more, we dive into a critical discussion on regime change, the scenarios that could drive it, and for the first time talk about what might follow.  This episode of Crossing Thin Ice features insights from experts Max Rudolph, David Ingram, Raghu Ramachandran, and Jim Evans. Our conversation covers key drivers like climate change, debt levels, demographics, and technology, and explores tipping points that could dramatically reshape the risk landscape. Join us as we analyze potential scenarios and the vital role that risk management plays in navigating these transformations for insurers and beyond​.  Now available – documentation of how the scenarios are developed, summaries of the seven scenarios presented on the podcast and a look at our full set of 81 scenarios. https://riskviews3.wordpress.com/before-and-after-regime-change/

AI in Investing: Enhancing Risk Strategy

AI is being used to improve investment decision-making and risk management. Dave and Max discuss how these models can be retrained with specialized knowledge to enhance long-term strategies while addressing key risks like data bias and overfitting with guest Kailan Shang. Join us as we explore the growing role of AI in shaping the future of investment management. Shang has written a research paper  https://tinyurl.com/25v27q4p that emphasizes the importance of balancing AI's analytical power with human judgment and ethical considerations. Listeners will discover how AI is shaping the future of investing and the key risks from AI.

Vector Borne Illnesses

As winters grow milder and the global climate shifts, vector-borne diseases like Lyme and Zika are spreading to new regions. Join us as we delve into the science behind this expansion and explore the public health strategies essential for staying ahead of these threats. Another emerging risk podcast by Max Rudolph. 

Scenario Planning in 10 Steps

Build your strategic foresight with our latest Crossing Thin Ice episode "Scenario Planning in 10 Steps." Learn how you can use scenario planning to road test your strategies to ensure your organization is prepared for future challenges. Whether you're a seasoned risk manager or new to scenario planning, this episode offers valuable insights to enhance your strategic planning process and fortify your risk management framework.

Zero Cash Flow Assets

Is there a Place for Zero Cash Flow Assets?
Whether a product of today’s added complexity or a result of the recent reach for yield when rates are low, more assets are being held by insurance companies with irregular or deferred cash flows. Some find this a natural progression, while others never find it appropriate. The answer is somewhere in the middle. It depends, but often can add value when done in moderation. This podcast will walk us through examples that differentiate specific products between times of stability and stress. By Max Rudolph

Overconfidence

We are all overconfident. Sometimes Overconfidence is what is needed to get out of bed in the morning.  In an insurance company it is often the chief risk officer's duty to look out for overconfidence.  In an unusual twist, this podcast addresses overconfidence of chief risk officers and what they can do about it. By Dave Ingram