Crossing Thin Ice

The Power of AI to Revolutionize Actuarial Work

Explore with us how AI is poised to transform the actuarial landscape. We interview Dan Kim, an actuary pioneering AI innovation to streamline research and enhance efficiency. He delves into the challenges of AI hallucinations and bias, highlighting the need for transparency and accuracy. This episode uncovers the exciting potential and critical considerations of integrating AI into actuarial work. First in a Series.

Risk Beliefs

You must walk the walk and not just talk the talk. Strong Risk Management culture means that words and actions are also consistent with beliefs. By Dave Ingram.
We would like to know what you think about a set of 30 Risk Culture Beliefs that we have observed.  Please take our totally anonymous survey about RISK BELIEFS.  
We have been sharing discussions of the 30 Risk Beliefs - Read about them HERE

Cybercrime - Most Dangerous Risk of 2024

The leading risk in the 2024 survey is Cybercrime. From phishing scams to ransomware attacks, cybercriminals are constantly evolving, posing new threats to individuals, businesses, and governments alike. Consistently ranked #1 or #2 in the annual Dangerous Risks survey, learn why we think that Cybercrime is here to stay. By Dave Ingram 
And here is the link to the Fear vs. Danger podcast where we go into detail about what it takes to make something highly Feared even when it is only moderately Dangerous.  https://crossingthinice.podbean.com/e/fear-vs-danger/ 

Permafrost

Feedback loops are increasingly seen as important in climate projections. Melting permafrost is expected to accelerate warming of the planet and release pathogens unknown to us today. By Max Rudolph.

Regime Change - Scenarios

Four scenario examples leading to Regime Change from Neil Howe, Ray Dalio, Peter Zeihan and the IPCC show us how widely the disruptions can differ while consistently ending up with a big regime change in our near-term future. Part 2 of a four-part series. By Dave Ingram and Max Rudolph

Interest Rate Risk for Insurers

When rates recently spiked it surprised many with direct and indirect implications. The market value of bonds decreased, and the price of replacement parts for autos increased. There are three ways that insurers can be affected by higher rates. Looking at past events help to prepare for similar tail events in the future. By Max Rudolph.

Dangerous Risks 2024: Return to Normal Concerns

The 2024 survey sees respondents react to recent increases in specific risks as technology evolves and the environment moves away from the pandemic. The top 4 risks are the same as those seen in 2019. By Dave Ingram and Max Rudolph.

No Free Lunch

New asset classes like junk bonds and subprime mortgages initially promised high returns without too much risk. Many investors were surprised to find that the risk premium was insufficient to provide for actual losses when they came. Modelers need to adjust for incomplete investment cycles that include only the positive part (e.g., high spreads) but not the defaults and liquidity crises typical at the end of a cycle. By Max Rudolph

RiskMaster Cheat Code

Has any of your ERM program has been written down? Or is it at risk of being lost when a key player leaves the insurer?  The Risk Management Framework document provides the RiskMaster Cheat Codes for understanding the overall ERM system and for specific topics like stress testing and risk reporting to allow a new risk team to start from a solid base should that be needed. It also can act as a cheat sheet for the Board to be able to participate in ERM discussions even though they do not live in the system. By Dave Ingram.

Water, Water Everywhere

Climate change and population growth have stressed fresh water sources, leaving agriculture and coastal residents with opposing issues. While aquifers and rivers struggle, extreme weather and sea level rise provide an overabundance of water. Insurers increasingly are dealing with these extreme weather events that highlight the presence of too much water (hurricanes, inland flooding) or too little water (drought, fire).  Today Max covers some existing issues while others will be emerging at a later time. By Max Rudolph