Crossing Thin Ice

Dangerous Risks 2024: Return to Normal Concerns

The 2024 survey sees respondents react to recent increases in specific risks as technology evolves and the environment moves away from the pandemic. The top 4 risks are the same as those seen in 2019. By Dave Ingram and Max Rudolph.

No Free Lunch

New asset classes like junk bonds and subprime mortgages initially promised high returns without too much risk. Many investors were surprised to find that the risk premium was insufficient to provide for actual losses when they came. Modelers need to adjust for incomplete investment cycles that include only the positive part (e.g., high spreads) but not the defaults and liquidity crises typical at the end of a cycle. By Max Rudolph

RiskMaster Cheat Code

Has any of your ERM program has been written down? Or is it at risk of being lost when a key player leaves the insurer?  The Risk Management Framework document provides the RiskMaster Cheat Codes for understanding the overall ERM system and for specific topics like stress testing and risk reporting to allow a new risk team to start from a solid base should that be needed. It also can act as a cheat sheet for the Board to be able to participate in ERM discussions even though they do not live in the system. By Dave Ingram.

Water, Water Everywhere

Climate change and population growth have stressed fresh water sources, leaving agriculture and coastal residents with opposing issues. While aquifers and rivers struggle, extreme weather and sea level rise provide an overabundance of water. Insurers increasingly are dealing with these extreme weather events that highlight the presence of too much water (hurricanes, inland flooding) or too little water (drought, fire).  Today Max covers some existing issues while others will be emerging at a later time. By Max Rudolph

Achieving Resilience

Resilience can be described as bending without breaking. There are four aspects of ERM that all need to be fully adopted to achieve this important result. By Dave Ingram.

Using Risk Appetite: Contrarian Views

It is commonly assumed that higher returns require higher risk to be accepted. Fear and greed may outperform over the short term but often the last investor in does poorly. Long periods of stimulus provide warning that economic cycles come to an end eventually. By Max Rudolph.

Regime Changes lead to New Normal

Radical changes in our Physical, Political, Economic and Social systems have been and will continue to buffet humanity. Every so often the combined result is a major change of regime in which new patterns for each of these systems develops and persists for some time creating a new normal.  We make the case that this is coming in our world. By Max Rudolph and Dave Ingram

Leverage: The Flip Side of Risk Management

It was tempting, when interest rates were so low, to borrow just because you could. But that may not be best for an organization from a risk/reward perspective.  Leverage can have a major impact on the risk profile that is not usually considered. Leverage is actually the flip side of risk management.  By Dave Ingram

Climate Migration

No one is arguing anymore that the planet is not getting hotter, but what are the limits to temperature rise for humans survival? The ramifications for those who live in poverty in tropical zones is that they will need to move because of the heat. The alternatives are unacceptable. The world needs a plan to deal with massive climate migration. By Max Rudolph.

Risk and Capital

Stakeholder perception about the appropriate level of risk and the corresponding capital level varies. Some insurers focus on optimizing income and disbursements, while others find their goals aligned by holding redundant capital. Here we discuss several broad choices for the level of capital and the pros and cons of each based upon common business objectives. By Dave Ingram.