Crossing Thin Ice

Vector Borne Illnesses

As winters grow milder and the global climate shifts, vector-borne diseases like Lyme and Zika are spreading to new regions. Join us as we delve into the science behind this expansion and explore the public health strategies essential for staying ahead of these threats. Another emerging risk podcast by Max Rudolph. 

Scenario Planning in 10 Steps

Build your strategic foresight with our latest Crossing Thin Ice episode "Scenario Planning in 10 Steps." Learn how you can use scenario planning to road test your strategies to ensure your organization is prepared for future challenges. Whether you're a seasoned risk manager or new to scenario planning, this episode offers valuable insights to enhance your strategic planning process and fortify your risk management framework.

Zero Cash Flow Assets

Is there a Place for Zero Cash Flow Assets?
Whether a product of today’s added complexity or a result of the recent reach for yield when rates are low, more assets are being held by insurance companies with irregular or deferred cash flows. Some find this a natural progression, while others never find it appropriate. The answer is somewhere in the middle. It depends, but often can add value when done in moderation. This podcast will walk us through examples that differentiate specific products between times of stability and stress. By Max Rudolph

Overconfidence

We are all overconfident. Sometimes Overconfidence is what is needed to get out of bed in the morning.  In an insurance company it is often the chief risk officer's duty to look out for overconfidence.  In an unusual twist, this podcast addresses overconfidence of chief risk officers and what they can do about it. By Dave Ingram

The Power of AI to Revolutionize Actuarial Work

Explore with us how AI is poised to transform the actuarial landscape. We interview Dan Kim, an actuary pioneering AI innovation to streamline research and enhance efficiency. He delves into the challenges of AI hallucinations and bias, highlighting the need for transparency and accuracy. This episode uncovers the exciting potential and critical considerations of integrating AI into actuarial work. First in a Series.

Risk Beliefs

You must walk the walk and not just talk the talk. Strong Risk Management culture means that words and actions are also consistent with beliefs. By Dave Ingram.
We would like to know what you think about a set of 30 Risk Culture Beliefs that we have observed.  Please take our totally anonymous survey about RISK BELIEFS.  
We have been sharing discussions of the 30 Risk Beliefs - Read about them HERE

Cybercrime - Most Dangerous Risk of 2024

The leading risk in the 2024 survey is Cybercrime. From phishing scams to ransomware attacks, cybercriminals are constantly evolving, posing new threats to individuals, businesses, and governments alike. Consistently ranked #1 or #2 in the annual Dangerous Risks survey, learn why we think that Cybercrime is here to stay. By Dave Ingram 
And here is the link to the Fear vs. Danger podcast where we go into detail about what it takes to make something highly Feared even when it is only moderately Dangerous.  https://crossingthinice.podbean.com/e/fear-vs-danger/ 

Permafrost

Feedback loops are increasingly seen as important in climate projections. Melting permafrost is expected to accelerate warming of the planet and release pathogens unknown to us today. By Max Rudolph.

Regime Change - Scenarios

Four scenario examples leading to Regime Change from Neil Howe, Ray Dalio, Peter Zeihan and the IPCC show us how widely the disruptions can differ while consistently ending up with a big regime change in our near-term future. Part 2 of a four-part series. By Dave Ingram and Max Rudolph

Interest Rate Risk for Insurers

When rates recently spiked it surprised many with direct and indirect implications. The market value of bonds decreased, and the price of replacement parts for autos increased. There are three ways that insurers can be affected by higher rates. Looking at past events help to prepare for similar tail events in the future. By Max Rudolph.